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10.5M population in the Five Cities
Vishal Malik,
Thank you for the information. The data you provided are really helpful. Because the title cannot be longer than 128 characters, I open a new post here.
OK. Let’s go back to the data and re-do the analysis.
The 4.87M number comes from the Orascom’s presentation. As I pointed out above, it’s the number for the key four cities mentioned in the document. Thank you for the new link and address the new numbers.
The 10.5M number sounds like the total population from both Urban and Suburban. For example, the Toronto 2.5M in Orascom’s doc and 5.1M from the Wiki which I believe is GTA. Yes. I googled the same number.
Let’s use the 10.5M from the Five cities in 2006. The number will rise to around 11M in 2011. Depends on the roaming of the landed immigrants, this number could be even much higher. Let’s use 11M for now.
11M * 80% Market Penetration = 8.8M. The Low End subs will be 8.8M * 22.6% = 1.99M and the High End subs will be 8.8M * 77.4% = 6.8M.
A question here, will the 1.5M Globalive Target subs come from the Five Cities only or from the Three Provinces (Urban and Rural Area)?
From my above post, I assumed 50% subs come from the Four Cities (Urban only) and 50% subs distributed from Suburban to Rural Area. I made this assumption because:
1. Orascom addressed the Rural Area in 2011/2012 700MHz auction
2. 500M-700M CAPEX over the next four years from OTH may not be sufficient to cover all three provinces from Urban to Rural Area.
I think the 50% number is conservative. Compared 8.8M with 4.1M subs I addressed in my above post. If 100% 1.5M subs come from the Five Cities (Urban and Suburban), my previous numbers still work. If not, we can decrease the old numbers with new assumed Percentage. The Market Share Globalive need to gain will vary from 10% to 18% which means less pressure for the management team.
The assumptions not suggestions for CRTC and co-operative derive from the presentation. When investors asked about Tower sharing during the presentation, Globalive replied that CRTC will be the coordinator if I remember correctly. Globalive also mentioned that it would not intend to a Price War but it would have less to lose.
I like to put the Tower Sharing into the technical part next. Even CRTC regulates the rules and policies; there is an obvious disadvantage for the tenant because he may be going to put his antennas much lower than the owner. This disadvantage will address more sites to cover the same area.
I would say Target Blended ARPU $30 is already some kind of Price War. From the document Orascom provided, the current Canada ARPU is $55.
Again, thank you very much for the updated information. Actually, I started my research recently because I am looking for an engineering job from Globalive. I hope it can be a career and I can grow with the network and the company. However I need to do the homework first.
:-)